One in four Australians would use solar and battery storage to quit the electricity grid, a new report has claimed, as part of a “very Australian energy revolution” largely driven by grassroots demand.
The Australia Institute report, Securing renewables: How batteries solve the problem of clean electricity, charts the progress of battery storage technology in Australia, as falling costs combine with increasing consumer dissatisfaction to set the stage for a major disruption of the energy status quo.
The report, which includes the results of recent TAI polling, points to significant public support for distributed solar and battery storage as both a consumer choice and a national policy priority in the lead up to the federal election.
“The rapid uptake of batteries is going to drive a very Australian energy revolution,” the report’s author Dan Cass says. “It is being driven by grassroots consumer demand rather than a consistent national policy.
“It will gather momentum because of the vast size of our electricity network and relatively low population density, consumer self-interest, unpredictable technological innovation, environmental concern and perversely, a conservative electricity industry that is generally resisting the transition to the smart grid future that storage technologies enable.
Cass also points to the end of feed-in tariffs in 2016 as another incentive for solar households to become early adopters of batteries.
“If solar households do embrace battery storage then this will lead to lower prices for future market segments, which are less adventurous,” he says. Either way, “consumers are going to turn to storage whether or not reforms to the electricity sector encourage them.”
Not surprisingly, the TAI survey finds that the vast majority of early battery storage adopters would will be driven by the dollar – a desire to reduce their electricity bills.
Of the 1412 people surveyed, 74 per cent attributed their interest in batteries to saving money, presumably by storing and therefore using more of the solar energy they generate on their rooftops, rather than sending it to the grid.
Of those surveyed who had already installed rooftop solar, 81 per cent expressed interest in getting batteries to store the excess power they generate.
But a surprising 23 per cent of respondents said they would invest in battery storage as a means to quit the grid entirely. Another 39 per cent said they would buy batteries to gain independence from their energy company.
“These results are a rejection of business-as-usual in the electricity sector and show that Australians are keen to use technologies that threaten established energy companies.”
And the threat here is not only levelled at energy incumbents. The survey also contains a message to politicians, that 71 per cent of respondents would consider voting for a party that supported small-scale solar and storage.
Interestingly, the survey also found that 34 per cent of respondents would invest in battery storage with a payback period of five years or more; which Cass says suggests that “early adopters of storage are likely to be a significant market, driving down costs and increasing community awareness of the benefits of the technology.”
Up to one in 10 (9%) respondents were prepared to wait even longer, for eight or more years, for their battery system to pay itself back (see Figure 8).
On the topic of battery cost, the report points to the plunging cost of lithium-ion battery technology as an indicator of how quickly batteries will become economic for the average household.
As you can see in the chart below, mass production and continual innovation of lithium-ion batteries for mobile phones, laptops and electric vehicles has brought the cost of the technology down 90 per cent over 16 years from $US3,185/kWh in 1995 to $US320/kWh in 2011, according to Citigroup. Costs continued to decline from 2011-2014 by almost another third.
The report also cites the example of Australia’s own Redflow “flow battery” technology, which as we reported here, claims to have cut the cost of its technology by more than 50 per cent.
So where does this leave Australia and Australian consumers?
“If Australia is smart,” says Cass, “we can create local jobs and generate export opportunities right across the value chain, from the storage hardware, to control software and in creative new finance and business models that can power the smart grid of the future.
“This is good news for policy makers and politicians, because many Australian homes have already invested in solar PV and solar hot water and a super majority of the public supports renewable energy generally,” he writes.
“It should be easy to get cross-party support for good policies that support the rise of storage and smart grids, create jobs, improve productivity and reduce pollution.”
But, there is a but. “Unfortunately,” writes Cass in the report, “Australia does not yet have a framework in place that would allow storage to compete on a level playing field with coal and other conventional energy assets.
“Regulators are yet to acknowledge this officially, but privately they see that batteries are radical and beneficial disrupters, because they can enable genuine competition.
“There is a risk that vested interests will have an undue influence over the reform process and even hold back consumers and others who wish to invest in storage,” he says.
Sophie is editor of One Step Off The Grid and deputy editor of its sister site, Renew Economy. Sophie has been writing about clean energy for more than a decade.
This post was published on June 1, 2016 4:30 am
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In Sydney, 60% of annual energy use is for home heating and hot water so anybody going off-grid will need to source energy for more than lighting, the TV and the microwave. Of course that 60% is an annualised figure and more like 80% in winter.
Batteries to provide even a couple of days of storage for when the weather is bad will be much too expensive for most. However there is a practical solution....
yeah close coupled h/w with a wood chip heater. In the old days one could have a hot shower on Saturday's Age newspaper
…yeah, Grid Reform and it can't happen too soon. The grid is one of the most efficient virtual storage and variability answers going, and it is already built and paid for (mostly).
Home batteries have a bright future, but our research has found they're currently still in "early adopter" territory.
According to this survey, only 4% of people would invest in a battery if it takes longer than 10 years to pay back. Unfortunately, very few suburbanites installing a battery today would get a payback in that timeframe.
I hope we don't see a rush of people installing batteries this year expecting quick payback, only to be disappointed.
There are examples where home batteries make economic sense already. These include rural off-grid, new off-grid housing developments, distributed peak demand shaving and assisting an over-sized solar array.
Of course there are non-economic benefits too - that's another whole discussion. :-)
The rural areas really should go off-grid ASAP. The rural market in Australia is quite large!
that's my plan just waiting for suitable batteries to go on the market
I'm surprised all the attention is on batteries. In my opinion the management system is more important at this stage. Batteries are replaceable but I for one want to start off with the management system that will last me. The management systems vary in the features they offer. Unfortunately no one seems to have proper facts sheets on these devices - it's all publicity advertising extolling the benefits.
We sell the Enphase Envoy-S Metered here at Solaray. Let me know if I can help with any questions. Not sure if I'm allowed to put a link in here, but I have pdf's etc. if you want info.
Thanks Thomas. I've posted a request for more information on the Solaray website. I don't think it's a good idea to share email addresses in a forum.
use anchor tags to put links in or just post the url raw.
I reckon a lot of people will be 'badly' surprised by reality... remember, we a re in the hype phase, not even near early adopters.
The really early adopters have spent 30-50k$ for an off-grid solution. simply let me know when you can get 20kWh in batteries for 10k$ installed (like I have). :)
Did you make your own batteries Max? :-)
Yes. Bought 16 Sinopoly cells 3.2V 400Ah, all in series, with an EV-power battery management system -- all put in a tradie aluminium box 50x50x140 cm3. runs since last May 24th without one problem. Are being discharged to 20 SoC, fed by 12kW in panels... and a Selectronic PRO GO managing the energy flows.
http://www.max.grenkowitz.net/tmp/SharedImages/_MG_0410_00.jpg
Adding storaqe to PV may mean economic and environmental (lowered emissions) sense for some but depends on individual circumstances. If you receive the old, over-generous FiT, as do I, then the grid's your battery there's little point in adding storage. Batteries and a new inverter might give you power when there's a blackout but little other benefit. However if you're receiving a mere 6 c/kWh then the case could be different.
I believe there's a simple gut reaction with many saying they want to disconnect from the grid for ideological reasons such as a dislike of the retailers - and the graphs above reflect this. When people start getting serious and doing the supply-consumption- required storage calculations and looking at the cost of batteries and the emissions associated with their manufacture and disposal, their enthusiasm may by tempered. However in two years' time, the situation may be completely different.
When the 60c/kWh tariff dies in January, don’t give away your photovoltaic (PV) solar energy. Store it as hot water for hot showers or to heat your home. A hot water tank
can store 50 kWh in a cubic meter when heated to 90C and used down to 45C. This
is less than the energy storage density of Lithium batteries but it is way cheaper, particularly if you already have the electric hot water tank.
Battery energy storage systems are in the news but notice how the owners of these systems tend to use another form of energy, such as wood fires or gas, for heating. The reason is that water and space heating uses 60% of the average home energy bill (Ausgrid figures). In the depths of winter, space heating uses perhaps 20 to 50 kWh per
day, even with insulation, much more energy than can be economically provided
from batteries at $1000/kWh. Domestic hot water is a largely constant year-round energy cost.
This year’s Solar Storage Conference in Melbourne featured four companies selling systems and parts for hot water storage. Typically, systems sense the solar power flow into the grid and control the voltage fed to the water tank heater so that the power
to the grid is very low. Either a standard electric hot water tank or a hydronic space heating system can be connected. Such systems have been in use in the UK and New Zealand for many years.
See easywarm.co.nz, enasolar.net, powerdiverter.com.au, glendimplex.com.au
Alternatively an unpressurised water tank stores the heat and an internal mains-pressure heat exchanger feeds your domestic hot water, space heating or other use.
See esw.net.au, smartheat.com.au.
If not included in the system controller, a special Variable Output Voltage (VoV) inverter is required, costing about $2500, about the same as a grid-connect inverter. You need the VoV inverter, because the old grid-connect inverter operates at the fixed grid voltage whereas a resistance heating element is fed a variable voltage dependent on the solar array output power.
A tempering valve ($200) is required to drop the high temperature water into the 50C range as in all domestic hot water systems.
All systems can have electric or gas boost for days when a small PV array cannot meet the demand or an automatic time switch ($40) can connect the tank element to off-peak grid power during the night, if this suites your daily pattern. Alternatively, a second tank element can be wired to the grid via a switch.
PV panel heating is cheaper than solar thermal flat plate collectors or evacuated tubes as there is no extra plumbing required and no rooftop maintenance or water refill after a
hot sunny day.
Hot water running through wall-mounted radiators is used all over the world for space heating. Thermostats regulate the room temperature and there is no noise or drafts.
These systems can be stand-alone, unpressurised and rely on a small pump to move the water around so the heat exchanger is unnecessary and you could even make your own tank. Water costs $2 a cubic meter and never needs replacing.
The tempering valve reduces the temperature of the water down to about 55C so that the radiators are not too hot to touch.
Hot water energy storage systems are compact due to the very high heat capacity of water, can be expanded in capacity for basically the cost of the extra tank and store energy directly in the form that is most required in the cooler parts of Australia. Of course batteries are required to run your lighting and TV but such loads are a tiny part of your power bill compared to heating.
Yes storing hot water is a very interesting and smart idea. I'd like to see some long term data on this.
It's stunning that given the reports introduction and framing in terms of storage (and by implication dispatch energy) being the answer to RE variability that thermal storage is not even mentioned in passing. Thermal storage is the most cost effective way to store energy full stop and it's highly efficient (very low energy losses over a medium term period e.g.. 1ºC a day from 680º C is not much).
The reasons batteries are desirable is largely the corporate/political mess that is our generation and distribution networks and the poor tariffs now offered to PV owners.
But when a grid already exists (at great expense) it's the second best option to try and have households do energy storage to cover variability in an increasingly wind and solar powered gird. Utility scale storage can operate at a fraction of the cost. It's true distributed storage offers deferred network upgrading savings, but given falling demand that's a moot point anyhow now that the Treasurers of Australia seem to be onto the network projected increased demand gold-plating scam.
I really don't know how you could have not come across some "long term data" on thermal storage given it's efficiency and cost effectiveness, Dan.
Here's a white paper from FRENELL who claim to be able to build CST with thermal storage at a utility scale and dispatch energy at a lower LCOE than new coal with no carbon price (using US coal prices I assume). RenewEconomy wrote about it only a few weeks back.
While chemical battery storage in homes and businesses does represent a great weapon to deploy against the recalcitrant big-three energy gentailers and networks, it's by no means the most rational way to solve the variability issues that any grid with penetrations of RE >50% must cover for.
something is missing from this chart…
Last night, you may be interested to know, only required 10KWH to heat the 2 living areas in my home, with 2 Inverter Air Conditioners. NOT 50KWH!
And my Evacuated tube solar water heater provided all the hot water our family needed, with plenty to spare and cost nothing, ZERO to run.
Now, if you need 50kwh to produce the hot water storage you require, that would require a 10kwp PV array and that would require 66sqm of roof area! The cost of which would be circa $17k and would have nothing left over to run other appliances.
Fact: Solar PV is 16- 20% efficient, where Evacuated tube solar thermal is 97% efficient. You could use ET Solar Thermal to get your 50kwh of hot water storage and use a hell of a lot less roof area too, but the expense of the plumbing, the radiators and control system, makes it financially unviable.
A good reverse cycle split Air Conditioner with a COP of 4.9 will also cool you in summer. That's what I call a good investment. You may not like the truth, but the truth is what has to be told!
When punters call me and state they live in suburbia and want to go off grid. They have no idea they will need up to 50kwhs of usable storage, plus a back up genset.
Their desire then wanes dramatically.
Off grid systems are currently only for those that don't have the grid and the cost of getting it to their properties is way in excess of an off grid system.
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I have been doing a fair bit of research on solar recenlty, specifically brought on by the question, how cheaply can I heat my loungeroom during this particularly cold snap in Melbourne. This is probably one of the better discussions I've come across, it has a couple of my dog runs faster then yours comments but on a whole the information shared is great. My favourite so far is you used to be able to have a shower using the Saturday age. It'd be great if the information shared could be collated into a table or paragraph comparing the cost per unit energy ($/J I'd recommend) and the energy use (water heating, air heating) geographic locations as a initial way to see if there is that much of a difference between the systems. My initial guess is the $ difference will largely be due to the margins placed on the hardware by the retailer/wholesaler/installer.
Heres a link to a table if anyone would like to add or modify, please save the previous version in the folder called SS
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B7TEjkdil3O3TUJrc016TzZmRG8
This seems like a great opportunity to go from anecdotal evidence to a comparison of working systems.
The question I'd like to answer is what is the cheapest way to heat a 15 cubic meter room (in Melbourne) and is this also the most environmentally friendly.
I think it could be a really good dog race, unless racing gets banned !
Attached is a shot of the table.