RenewEconomy
Even Australia’s energy minister, Ian Macfarlane said it, so it must be true: Battery storage is about to change the energy system, both in Australia and overseas.
Macfarlane thinks it might take a while, but others suggest that Australia is ground zero for battery storage. That means that the impact will be felt now, even it is only in the strategy meetings of the incumbent utilities.
Morgan Stanley has produced an in-depth analysis of how the battery storage market may grow in Australia. It predicts a market of 2.4 million homes, worth around $24 billion. It also included these interesting graphs that neatly summarise what is at stake.
First, with the proposition. Morgan Stanley commissioned a surge in March that showed surprisingly strong interest in household solar and battery systems, with around 50 per cent ‘definitely interested’ or ‘maybe interested’.
The second graph shows the extent of household solar installations in Australia, state by state. Morgan Stanley believes that battery take-up will follow solar installation patterns, firstly for the ‘retrofit’ market (i.e. solar already installed), and then new rooftops.
The next graph illustrates how if solar production is stored for use later in the day, that will reduce the supply from the utility, impacting its earnings. Effectively, it is a transfer of value from merchant utilities.
To what extent. This graph show how much, at least as it applies to AGL Energy. On the wider scale, there will be lower pool prices and potential asset write-downs in the 2020s, particularly in peaking gas investments, which will be made more or less redundant once battery storage reaches 10 per cent of the National Electricity Market. And let’s not forget, the utilities between 2009 and 2014 invested in more capacity in peaking gas as they did in renewables, mainly wind energy/
So, who are the winners. Well, take your pick. These are some of the offerings in the Australian market at the moment, with Tesla offering the cheapest storage options so far, closely followed by LG and Acquion energy.
This article was first published at RenewEconomy.
Giles Parkinson is founder and editor of One Step Off The Grid, and also edits and founded Renew Economy and The Driven. He has been a journalist for 35 years and is a former business and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review.
This post was published on May 20, 2015 2:25 pm
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I only see 4 graphs...
I have noticed this previously.
4 graphs + 1 table = 5 'graphics'?
More interesting to discuss their contents.
Those battery prices seem high. Over six years ago I bought 45x90Ah LiFePO4 cells to make a not quite 13kWh battery for my electric car. I hit the worst possible time for exchange rates and the battery cost about $9,000 plus about another $1000 various connectors and battery management bits, so about $775/kWh, better than most of the prices above.
How long did your batteries last.
Past tense? The battery is still going strong, 6 years and 50,000km later.
Ok right. You put LiFePo4 batteries in a car. Rather than grid storage.
Yes, in the car, and that is harder work for a battery than grid storage in a house - bursts of power required at many 10s of kW. So how come it was cheaper ages ago?
I don't know either.. but single cell prices for LFP have risen by about 30% compared to 15-18 months ago..
Can't just be the AUD.
Really wondering when they start ramping up production with these price rises..
As I understand it Peter, the prices include the ancillary equipment (charger, inverter and switch gear) required to make it all work. It appears there may be some variations is how those things are calculated.
That makes a bit more sense, then. I had assume that the battery prices was just the battery, or perhaps battery plus some integrated battery management (keeping cells balanced and protection for over charging or discharging), but not the ancillary equipment that integrates the battery into a larger power management system.
Perhaps you mean Aquion rather than Acquion.
And their prices are nowhere near as low as LG or Tesla.
Btw, Positronic does real rural off grid installations with everything... panels, inverters, chargers, batteries.. all single components put together to form a unit.
They can't compete with Tesla on price and address a totally different market.
PS: I'm not affiliated with them in any way, just stating what I know.
One of the difficulties with these raw figures is that they fail to look at these batteries within an actual usage context. When real life charging occurs over a 5 hour period, and predominantly discharge occurs over an 8 hour period, but the battery's optimum capacity is only achieved when a 20 charge and 20 hour discharge period, as you find with the salt water batteries, you find that the usable capacity is only half that stated and so the effective cost is doubled. Many so called battery solutions for households are not really optimal for the usage patterns.
That describes lead acid behaviour but LiFePO4 are not like that. Amp-hours in and out are just the same regardless of high or low discharge rates. My Li cells in my home converted car will sag a bit for voltage, which means some internal resistance, and some energy loss as heat, when the cells are cold because the car has been parked outside in a Canberra winter, and I ask for rapid acceleration of almost a tonne of metal, but that is far more than a house demand. Powering the demands of a house would be a doddle compared to running a car.
Actually Peter, it doesn't describe lead acid behaviour, it describes Salt water battery (as in Aquious) batteries. The Tubular gel variant of lead acid battery is extremely well placed to gain maximum benefit from the typical charge/discharge times involved in the solar storage industry. This is well reflected in the statements made by one of the largest suppliers of both Li and Pb technology in Australia (Yuasa) at the recent Energy Storage Conference that in terms of best fit technology for purpose, the Gels beat Li variants hands down.
I am really only aware of lead acid and LiFePO4 behaviour since they were the options for a car conversion 6-7 years ago. My battery meter counts amp-hours in and out. It has a feature that is not used with Li but for lead adjusts dynamically for the rate of discharge. I didn't use lead but the gist from my reading at the time was to expect only half as many amp-hours out from lead as its 20hour Ah rating when the discharge happens in short bursts, and faster in any case, as in a car. The rule of thumb seemed to be that the nominal capacity of lead acid needed to be about double to be on par with a certain capacity of LiFePO4.
Peter, when it comes to transport applications, Li variants win hands down. They are clearly the most appropriate tecnology for that particular sector with fast charge and discharge rates. The graphs however relate to home and business solar charging with some grid interaction. For this purpose, Tubular gel appear to win at the moment.
And the Li benefits of higher energy density are not nearly so compelling in non-mobile applications. It does not matter much if a home battery is a bit heavier or bulkier for the same utility.
This all about Li tech.
I still feel Flow batteries are more suited to storage.