Rooftop solar installations have hit the doldrums as consumers put new investments on hold until after the May 03 federal election, with both major parties promising to deliver some form of national home battery discount.
A total of around 253 megawatts of new rooftop solar capacity was installed by homes and businesses over the month of March, according to the latest data from solar market analyst SunWiz.
SunWiz chief Warwick Johnston says this means market growth is up just 2 per cent on the previous month, and down 3 per cent on the same time last year.
Ironically, it is the Sunshine State, Queensland, that has put the brakes on in this instance, with new rooftop solar installations in that state falling by 11 per cent, driven by declines in the 10-15 kW segment.
Interestingly, Queensland is one of the few big states without a state government subsidy for home batteries, after the former Labor government’s Battery Booster program, which offered rebates of up to $4,000, ended in May 2024.
Why might battery rebates affect rooftop solar installations? As Johnston explained to One Step Off The Grid last month, it’s all about the changing economics of rooftop solar.
As Australia’s millions of rooftop solar systems have continued to drive down the cost of electricity during the day, regulators have likewise been chipping away at the price consumers can get for sending their solar to the grid. In Victoria, it has been slashed to close to zero.
Where investment in rooftop solar was once at least partially recouped through decent feed-in tariffs, households and businesses nowadays will get the best return on their investment by using what they generate.
This means the next wave of residential rooftop solar expansion is likely to have batteries included, to store excess generation for later use, maximising self consumption.
But Johnston says how this plays out will also depend on whether battery prices continue to fall, and how state and federal governments handle the addition of any new rebate schemes.
Which brings us to the federal election. As Renew Economy has reported, both federal Labor and the Coalition are expected announce some take on a home battery subsidy or rebate scheme ahead of the federal poll – an almost guaranteed policy slam dunk in a “cost-of living election.”
The ALP this week hinted its policy plan would be revealed within days.
So it makes sense that consumers are waiting to see what these policies might look like before they take any further steps to take better control of their energy costs.
Sophie is editor of One Step Off The Grid and editor of its sister site, Renew Economy. Sophie has been writing about clean energy for more than a decade.
