There’s nothing like a series of public holidays and a federal election to dampen markets, and rooftop solar is no exception.
The latest monthly data from industry analyst SunWiz shows that the volume of small-scale PV installations (0-100kW) in April decreased by 10% compared to March, as Easter, school holidays and Anzac Day helped deliver a a 6% year-to-date shortfall compared to 2024.
SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston say the upcoming federal election has also weighed on activity in recent months, particularly in light of the Albanese government’s promise to introduce a national home battery rebate if re-elected.
According to SunWiz, roughly 225 megawatts (MW) of new rooftop solar systems were registered in April 2025, placing the year 6% below 2024 levels.
This dip in installations was observed across all states, the report says, with volumes down between 9%, in Victoria, and 19%, in the ACT. Queensland was an exception, with volumes steady, but Johnston notes that state’s volumes were already low in March.
The downturn was also observed across all rooftop solar system capacity ranges, with declines of between 5% and 18%. The commercial solar 50-75 kW segment had the smallest drop, according to SunWiz, while the biggest fall was seen in the 30-50 kW.
Where to from here? With the federal election out of the way and a re-elected Labor government expected to deliver on its promise of a $2.3 billion battery rebate, starting July 01, we could be headed for a fresh market boom.
Market experts like Johnston expect discounted batteries to drive a new wave of solar sales, as those yet to invest in rooftop PV are given fresh incentive to take the plunge, and those with solar consider upgrading their system at the same time as adding storage.
Johnston, who is in Munich this week for the massive Intersolar conference, believes the next wave of residential rooftop solar expansion lies in self-consumption and energy storage, as battery adoption accelerates.
“While traditional small-scale residential sales have declined, small-commercial solar and battery storage represent the future growth drivers,” he said here in March.
“Solar retailers who adapt their business models to these emerging trends will be best positioned for success in 2025 and beyond.
“Installers should focus on reaching out to existing customers whose warranties are expiring or whose inverters are failing, offering them a seamless upgrade path,” Johnston said.
“Installers and retailers who proactively target system upgrades, battery storage add-ons, and performance-based replacements will be best positioned to capitalise on this new wave of solar demand.”
Sophie is editor of One Step Off The Grid and editor of its sister site, Renew Economy. Sophie has been writing about clean energy for more than a decade.
