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Rooftop solar market slumps after 4 million milestone, but systems bigger than ever before

December 4, 2024 by Sophie Vorrath Leave a Comment

warranty Q Cells rooftop solar house sydney - optimised
Image: Q Cells
warranty Q Cells rooftop solar house sydney - optimised

In the month that Australia celebrated the installation of the four-millionth residential rooftop solar system in Sydney, the market appears to have celebrated by… well, taking a bit of a breather.

The latest monthly data from industry analysts SunWiz shows the uptake of new PV systems by households and businesses cooled again in November, with a total of 274MW registered for the month.

Source: SunWiz

This is not a major fall; it’s a 2 per cent drop on last month’s figures, which means 2024 is still tracking 2 per cent ahead of the year-to-date figures observed at the same time last year.

But it is “a poor outcome,” as SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston puts it, “in light of 20% month-on-month growth that commonly occurs in November.” (See chart above.)

According to the SunWiz, the “lacklustre” showing from the residential segment of the rooftop solar market has been the main dampener on progress, while small-commercial continues to grow.

Source: SunWiz

Indeed, SunWiz says November 2024 was the second best month on record for the registration of commercial small-scale technology certificates (STCs).

Another bright spot – and likely influenced by the strong showing from the commercial sector – is that the average system sizes hit an all-time high of 10.48kW.

Source: SunWiz

At the state level, Johnston says the “south-eastern powerhouses of the nation” – Victoria and New South Wales – showed poor performance, dragging down the nation’s tally.

South Australia was a lone bright spot – chalking up 10% growth in installation volumes over the month. But this was not enough to offset contractions in Victoria (7%) and NSW.

Sophie Vorrath
Sophie Vorrath

Sophie is editor of One Step Off The Grid and deputy editor of its sister site, Renew Economy. Sophie has been writing about clean energy for more than a decade.

Filed Under: Solar

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