This table from yesterday’s column by Warwick Johnston of Sunwiz about the prospects of commercial solar caught our attention, showing to what extent rooftop solar is penetrating into key markets.
A common measure of solar penetration is on all dwellings, and the figure usually bandied around is 15 per cent for the whole of Australia, and close to 30 per cent is states such as Queensland and South Australia.
But if the sample is narrowed down to “suitable” dwellings – meaning those with an OK roof, not in shade etc, then the penetration is much higher.
As Johnston, from solar analyst firm SunWiz notes (although these figures are sourced from ACIL Allen), the penetration rates in Queensland is already over 51 per cent, and 48 per cent in South Australia. Even in the states with least solar penetration, the figure is still 20 per cent of more.
What’s interesting in the growth in rooftop solar on commercial buildings. South Australia leads the market with around 30 per cent, followed by Victoria with 21 per cent, but generally the market is untapped with a national penetration rate of just 13 per cent.
That means there is still an estimated available capacity of more than 3,500MW. Johnston says the commercial PV market should be like “prospecting for gold”, but the market is difficult because it is so different to the residential market, requiring more time and investment.
Johnston says the market is difficult to crack, as he explains in this article here, and in his own blog on the PVSell website.